The Knights get themselves out of the relegation zone and still with a game in hand over Moseley and Plymouth Albion, 3 days later they face 4th placed Bedford. This deluge of games has shown that the Knights have strength in depth. They gained a bonus point win against Cardiff, made 11 changes and added another bonus point win against the Bees. If anything the added pressure has created a togetherness at the business end of the season.

When Bedford visited Castle Park last September, they were the victors 12 – 26, so the Knights didn’t defend their Castle successfully. Howells will want the Knights raid of Goldington Road to be more triumphant and prevent the Blues doing the double over them, his note of caution will be the worry of injuries. The inaugural Championship game last September against the Blues was described as an “unacceptable performance by a group of professional rugby players” by Knights DOR, Lynn Howells. Recent performances however have been positive, which has delighted the Welshman. Howells said after the Bees game that their performance had not dropped irrespective of whichever team of 15 players had been selected.

Head to head Bedford have won 5 games to the Knights 4. The Blues beat the Knights in their first 3 encounters and their last 2. The Knights had the ascendancy for the interim period but they haven’t beaten Bedford since November 2008.

In 2010 Bedford have won all of their league games except one, when the Exeter Chiefs beat them at Sandy Park. In their last Championship game the Blues beat Moseley 19 – 26 to make Bedford 4th in the Championship with 11 wins, 8 losses and 1 draw from their 20 games. The Knights are now 7th with 9 wins and 10 losses from their 19 games.

Bedford’s Championship losses this season have primarily been to Bristol and Exeter Chiefs; except to Plymouth Albion by 3 points, LW by 11 points, Cornish Pirates and Nottingham both only by a point but Bedford didn’t concede the double in the corresponding fixture to each of these 4 teams.

Bedford’s Canadian International full back, James Pritchard is the Championship’s 4th top points scorer, he has only scored 1 point less than LW’s Aled Thomas in 3rd. Pritchard averages scoring over 10 points/game, the 2nd highest average in the Championship. Another full back, Luke Fielden and winger Ian Davey are Bedford’s top try scorers, equal 8th in the Championship. Paul Tupai (flanker) and Myles Dorrian (fly half) have only scored a couple of tries fewer, the same amount as the Knight’s leading try scorer, Hudson Tonga’uiha (5).

The Blues have won ¾ of their home games and the Knights have won ½ of their away games. Try scoring is one of Bedford’s strengths, only Bristol & Exeter have scored more tries. Try scoring is fairly even throughout the game except about 32% are scored in the last quarter. Tries scored in every position are high but compared to the rest of the Championship, only the Pirate’s full back and Bristol’s centres have scored more tries than the Blue’s full back and centres. This may indicate centres and the full back breaking the line of defence with scything runs with the full back joining the back’s line in attack.

Conversely Bedford have leaked about 70% more tries than the Knights, unfortunately only about a third of these have been at Goldington Road. Try leakage follows a similar pattern to the try scoring but this time they leak about 39% more in the last quarter. Thus Bedford leak a slightly higher %age than they score in the last quarter. The Blue’s backs have scored about twice as many tries as their forwards but forwards and backs have both leaked a similar number of tries. Bedford Blues’ forwards have conceded the 4th greatest number of tries in the Championship. The back row has scored as many tries against Bedford as wingers have and the front row have scored more than centres or half backs but Bedford has only leaked 2 penalty tries.
This indicates that Bedford’s backs may be stronger than their forwards and individual tries by forwards peeling away from scrums/breakdowns or the front row driving over might have a better chance of scoring than the front 8 working together. It seems that the Knights must endeavour to minimise Bedford’s try scoring and Pritchard’s points scoring whilst aiming for primarily the back row and wingers to score tries but Lynn Howells will have his own, superior game plan for attack.

Putting points differences aside, Bedford have averaged scoring nearly 27 points/game whilst conceding about 19 points. The Knights have scored nearly 18.5/game and leaked only an average of 16.5/game. It’s a game where the home side’s much stronger attack faces the away side’s marginally stronger defence. Can the Knights transport their new found confidence and scoring prowess to face the stronger team in the league or will Bedford demonstrate why they are the Championship’s 3rd top try scorers, having scored over 30% more tries than the Knights?

Elsewhere fellow 8th position (promotion play-offs NOT relegation play-offs) challengers, Moseley travel to Exeter to play the Chiefs and Plymouth Albion follow the Knights to Sharmans Cross Road to play the Bees.