Bristol

After Exeter Chief’s 3 successive defeats, Bristol Rugby top the Championship and it’s a position they won’t want to relinquish; they’ll realise that the Chiefs could close the gap to within 1 game if they beat Rotherham Titans and Bristol lose to the Knights. This makes the result at Doncaster key for 3 teams, so a game not to miss.

Although being top is now not a prerequisite for promotion everyone wants the prestige, the best in the division over all games helps sell tickets and sponsorship....

Bristol have only lost 2 games this season, away to the Knights by 4 points and at home to the Chiefs by 11 points, neither were hardly devastating defeats and they were both in last October, early in the season. Bristol will be both on their guard against the Knights and they’ll want to demonstrate their superiority with a resounding victory. They have experienced the Knights style of play and will have seen videos of the Knights in action but the Knights have had the same experience of Bristol , which tends to cancel each other out.

Bristol are top of the Championship with 14 wins and 2 losses and the Knights are 9th with 6 wins and 8 losses. As you could figure out, the Knights have 2 games in hand over Bristol but that is of no consideration (in this game).
Bristol also top the home league table with only 1 loss to Exeter Chiefs and 6 home try bonus points to the Chief’s 2. Surprisingly the Knights away form is marginally better than at home as they are 7th in the away league table instead of 9th at home.

At present it’s difficult to know which stats are up to date but after so many games it’ll give a picture. Unsurprisingly a Bristol player tops the try scorer’s league, Daniel Norton (wing) but also Thomas Arscott (wing) is equal 2nd and Jack Adams (centre) is joint 6th.

Bristol’s Adrian Jarvis is 2nd in the Championship’s list of top kickers only just behind Exeter Chief’s Gareth Steenson.

Bristol’s backs have scored the most tries by backs in the Championship; their forwards have scored the same number of tries as all of the Knights. Even Bristol’s wingers have scored more tries than all of the Knights together, it is significantly more than any other team. Similarly but less significantly, the centres lead the Championship’s centres try scoring. No other position tops the Championship try scoring league, so the Knights need to watch for the ball being shipped to the backs and probably ultimately to the wingers, particularly Norton and Arscott, especially if the centres can’t break the line of defence. Bristol have played 2 more games than the Knights but it illustrates the point.

On average Bristol have the strongest defence in the Championship, leaking less than 16 points/game, the Knights defence is strong but they average nearly 17 /game but it is the points scored that makes the points difference so disparate, Bristol average a points difference of 13 points per game, the Knights total points difference is minus 1, so over 14 games they have nearly scored as many as have been scored against them.

Bristol leads the division by place, number of wins, average points against/game, points difference, number of bonus points and number of try bonus points,
Bristol have had the lowest number of tries in the Championship scored against them by forwards, surprisingly not by backs (but other teams have games to play). Bristol and the Knights are the only teams in the Championship that haven’t had a penalty try scored against them. It seems that not only do Bristol have the best try-scoring backs in the Championship but also the strongest set of forwards in defence.

We’ve established that Bristol’s defence is very strong but where have they been weakest?

Bristol have leaked over 60% of their tries at home and they’ve had nearly twice as many tries scored against them in the second half compared to the first and over 43% of them have been scored in the last quarter.
The Knights try scoring is fairly even throughout the game with a few more being scored in the third quarter.
At the Memorial Stadium scoring has been greater both for and against Bristol, hopefully they Knights can score some tries, particularly later in the game but their defence will keep Bristol away from the Knights’ try-line. Scaled up pro rata to 16 games played, the Knights have the 2nd best defensive record against try scoring in the Championship, the problem being that Bristol have the best.

Today’s match isn’t just a case of a strong attacking team playing the Knights’ strong defence, Bristol have the Championship’s strongest attack (tries scored) and strongest defence. This

Around the country the day after the Knights play in Bristol, assuming games are being played;

Knights have 2 games in hand over both and both have but much worse point’s difference;
Moseley (7th, 5 points above) play against in the Capital against the LW (3rd but Nottingham have 3 games in hand)
Plymouth (8th, 4 points above) play in Cornwall against Coventry (11th)

Same number of games played but again much worse point’s difference;
Rotherham Titans (10th, 5 points and a points difference of 96 behind) host the Chiefs from Exeter (2nd).